The self-named Common Sense Skeptic loves to make predictions, so I thought somebody should keep track of them.
I’m separating predictions into three categories, those that were correct, those that were wrong, and those that have yet to be determined.
Each prediction has a date with a link to the tweet or comment, a brief summary in italics(not direct quotes), and where applicable, an explanation on the rating.
Most recent predictions will be placed at the top of each category, making it easier to find updates.
I’m not including duplicate predictions. CSS has predicted many, many times that Starship won’t leave LEO, for example. I am including duplicate predictions with different timelines, however.
I’m not including blatantly false statements either. CSS claiming that Tesla has no profits after they reported over a billion in profits for Q2 2021, for example.
I’m not currently including any predictions from videos.
If you have a prediction that I have missed, let me know and I will add it.
Current Totals:
Correct: 2
Wrong: 26
TBD: 26
Correct
Mar 17, 2021: Starship won’t have an orbital flight by September 2021. As of the time of this writing, Starship’s maiden orbital test flight has yet to happen.
Mar 17, 2021: Starship won’t have an orbital flight by March, 2022. As of the time of this writing, Starship’s maiden orbital test flight has yet to happen.
Wrong
Jun 22, 2021: Tesla will never hit $900 per share again. TSLA hit $900.00 on October 21, 2021, merely 4 months after this prediction was made.
Oct 3, 2021: TSLA ends up bleeding red tomorrow. TSLA closed +$6.31 on a day when the Nasdaq closed -2.1%.
Aug 25, 2021: TSLA will be cheaper in a couple months. TSLA was at $237.30 and only briefly fell below that price a few times 10 months later.
Aug 8, 2021: Shorts will probably make $20-$30 per share tomorrow morning alone. TSLA closed the previous day at $699.10. It opened at $710.17, and never went below $705.13 all day, before closing +$14.66 at $713.76.
Jul 27, 2021: Tesla share price will drop. CSS almost perfectly picked the bottom, Jul 27th closed +$11 from the tweet, and the stock hasn’t been that low since.
Jul 23, 2021: Tesla has been dropping and will continue to drop. Tesla was at $643 at the time of this tweet. It is currently at $776, up nearly 21%. Further, Tesla hasn’t set a new low since $563 on March 8, 2021.
Jul 24, 2021: Giga Austin will be written off due to flood damage. While there was no timeframe given in this instance, it’s fair to say that this is not a concern in comparison to Tesla’s record profits and cash on hand.
Jul 23, 2021: Tesla will drop below $600 in a week. It never did, and is now 22% up from the time of that tweet.
Jul 18, 2021: Giga Berlin will be bulldozed. While there was no timeframe given in this instance, it’s fair to say that this is not a concern in comparison to Tesla’s record profits and cash on hand.
Jul 18, 2021: Gigafactory will be put on the auction block. While there was no timeframe given in this instance, it’s fair to say that this is not a concern in comparison to Tesla’s record profits and cash on hand.
Jul 18, 2021: S&P is going to boot Tesla. TSLA has never been as low as it was on this day, since.
Jul 15, 2021: Doge will never go back up. Doge was at $0.18 at the time of this tweet. It hit $0.33 on Aug 16, and is at $0.25 at the time of this writing.
Jul 9, 2021: Musk will lose billions in SolarCity trial. Didn’t happen.
Jul 3, 2021: Starlink will never work for airline wifi. They got approval. They’ve signed deals. They’ve demonstrated the capability.
Jun 29, 2021: Starlink will be an impenetrable cloak around the earth. This is an impossibility for satellites at 350-550km.
Jun 23, 2021: Tesla will never profit from the sale of its cars. Tesla demonstrated profitability, excluding all regulatory credits, Q2 2021.
Jun 20, 2021: Only way to make money off Tesla is as a short. Tesla is up 25% since this tweet.
Jun 15, 2021: Downhill from here for Tesla stock. Tesla closed that day at $599. It is now up 30% since that day.
May 18, 2021: No danger of Plaid being delivered Q2 2021. Tesla delivered the first Plaids on June 10, 2021.
May 8, 2021: Giga Shanghai will be gifted to NIO. Hasn’t happened. Record profits and cash on hand.
May 4, 2021: Tesla won’t meet the requirements for Gigafactory 2. They did.
Apr 15, 2021: Somebody will die within a week of LVCC Loop opening. It’s been nearly 17 weeks at the time of this writing with no accidents.
Mar 13, 2021: Tesla deliveries will drop in 2021 compared to 2020. Tesla delivered 126% of 2020’s total deliveries in the first three quarters of 2021 alone.
Mar 13, 2021: Tesla won’t produce 1 million cars in a single year by 2026. Tesla produced 1.1 milliion cars in the last 4 quarters. I don’t update this often enough to wait until EOY.
Mar 7, 2021: Q1 2021 is going to suck for Muskrats. Tesla reported $438 million in net income.
Nov 24, 2020: Starship will fail at the common bulkhead during bellyflop. SN8 completed the bellyflop-and-flip maneuver in December 2020, although it didn’t land successfully.
TBD
Apr 7, 2021: Zero-refurbishment of Super Heavy will never happen.
Oct 2, 2021: $40k Cybertruck isn’t happening.
Sep 17, 2021: Tesla ATV will never be delivered.
Aug 21, 2021: Tesla bot is vaporware.
Aug 1, 2021: Starlink will go bankrupt.
Jul 28, 2021: Starship will disintegrate before it breaks the sound barrier.
Jul 15, 2021: Cybertruck will never challenge any other truck, EV or not.
Jul 7, 2021: Starship will never get to the Moon.
Jul 3, 2021: Starship will never leave LEO.
Jun 29, 2021: Cybertruck will never make production.
Jun 20, 2021: Tesla will eventually go to $0 per share.
Jun 3, 2021: Starship will have a fraction the capability of Shuttle.
Jun 3, 2021: Cybertruck will cut test dummies in half.
Jun 2, 2021: Starship will never launch from a sea platform.
Jun 2, 2021: Starlink will never recover its costs.
Jun 1, 2021: Not a chance Tesla becomes first $10 trillion company.
May 22, 2021: No Tesla will ever fly with cold-gas thrusters.
May 16, 2021: BN explosion will wipe out Boca Chica launch facility.
Apr 30, 2021: First astronauts to Mars won’t be in Starship.
Apr 29, 2021: Starship won’t survive reentry.
Apr 28, 2021: Starship will still be unstable tin cans that explode in April 2022.
Apr 28, 2021: Starship to orbit won’t happen.
Mar 16, 2021: Dear Moon won’t happen.
Mar 11, 2021: Starship will never make it to Mars in one piece. Nor return.
Feb 22, 2021: Cybertruck won’t become the best-selling truck in America.
Nov 22, 2020: There will never be a million people on Mars.
Nov 17, 2020: Starship will never be human rated.
